Abstract

This study explores the mathematical modelling of measles transmission dy- namics in Nigeria, with a specific focus on assessing the impact of a single-dose vaccina- tion strategy. Given the resurgence of measles outbreaks, especially in regions with low vaccination coverage, this research aims to develop a robust model that can simulate dis- ease transmission and evaluate vaccination strategies. The primary objective of the study is to understand how varying levels of vaccination coverage, vaccine efficacy, and immunity waning affect the disease dynamics. A modified SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious- Recovered) model was used, incorporating additional compartments for individuals vac- cinated with one dose, as well as a factor for immunity waning. Data from Nigeria’s Measles Situation Report (April 2024) informed the parameter values, initial population distributions, and vaccination rates within the model, providing a real-world context. The study employed numerical simulations using MATLAB to analyse the effects of vaccina- tion rates, immunity waning, and other epidemiological parameters on measles transmis- sion. The results reveal that high vaccination coverage specifically, achieving coverage rates above 80% with the single-dose strategy significantly reduces the disease prevalence, indicating effective outbreak prevention. However, the simulations also show that im- munity waning can increase susceptibility, suggesting a potential need for booster dose to sustain long-term immunity in the population. It recommends that public health authorities prioritize reaching at least 90% vaccination coverage with two doses and consider booster doses if immunity waning proves significant. These insights provide a foundation for en- hancing measles control efforts, informing policy decisions, and guiding future research on infectious disease dynamics in Nigeria and similar settings.